Chapter 13 - Weather Forecasting

Index of Lecture Notes

• Weather Forecasting - Introduction
• Acquisition of weather information
• Forecast tools
• Methods of weather forecasting:
  • Persistence
  • trend
  • analogue
  • climatology
  • numerical weather prediction
  • problems with the model
  • types of numerical models run at NCEP
  • ensemble forecasting
• Other factors to consider:
  • Clouds during the day
  • Clouds at night
  • Snow
  • Winds
  • Local Signs
• Warm-air advection and cloud movement
• Warm-air advection and cloud movement, cont
• Warm-air advection and cloud movement, cont
• Cold-air advection and cloud movement
• Cold-air advection and cloud movement, cont
• Cold-air advection and cloud movement, cont
• Forecasting with surface charts
• Forecasting movement of weather systems assuming steady state motion
• Isallobars
• Rules of thumb

• Review Questions

• Homework