Model Forecasts- Numerical Weather Prediction

  • Predict the state of the atmosphere (e.g., pressure, temperature, precip, winds, etc) in time
  • The atmosphere and atmospheric processes are represented by mathematical equations
  • The equations are solved on supercomputers and are initialized with observational data
  • Most all of the forecast models are run at NCEP
  • models produce prognostic charts (progs) of the model output
  • Q:  Why are the models often wrong????