Ensemble Forecasting

  • a method used to improve medium and long-range forecasts
  • produce a model forecast from the same model or a couple models many times
  • the initial model conditions are slightly different for each run to represent the "uncertainties" and "errors" inherent in the observations used to initialize the model
  • if, at the end, all model runs produce a similar forecast, then a forecaster can have greater confidence in the model prediction.

EXAMPLE DATA:

NCEP Ensemble Forecast Information

 

Learn more about ensemble forecasting from the Climate Diagnostics Center: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/

And more information on Ensembles can be found at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/ensemble.htm