Ensemble Forecasting

  • a method used to improve medium and long-range forecasts
  • produce a model forecast from the same model or a couple models many times
  • the initial model conditions are slightly different for each run to represent the "uncertainties" and "errors" inherent in the observations used to initialize the model
  • if, at the end, all model runs produce a similar forecast, then a forecaster can have greater confidence in the model prediction.


NCEP Ensemble Forecast Information


Learn more about ensemble forecasting from the Climate Diagnostics Center: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/

And more information on Ensembles can be found at: