SURVEY OF METEOROLOGY II LAB #7

Forecast Model Performance

Lab Objectives:

• To how well different forecast models are able to predict the future position and intensity of a mid latitude cyclone

ASSIGNMENT:

1. For 12 Z today, do a surface pressure analysis over the US.  Identify the accurate position and intensity the the most prominent mid latitude low observed within the CONUS.  The location should be given as a latitude and longitude.  The intensity should be given in mb.

2. Now, create a table with the following information:

   • Intensity and position of the observed surface low at 12Z today.

   • forecast position and intensity from the following forecast models and model runs valid at the observed time:

     • AVN runs from 0Z on 10/29, 10/28, and 12Z on 10/26

     • ETA runs from 0Z on 10/29, 10/28, and 18Z on 10/27

3. Which model did a better job at forecasting the position of the low?  To answer this question, make a scatter plot of the observed and model positions.  For each data point, label the pressure observed or predicted.  Make one scatter plot with the observed and ETA data.  Make another scatter plot with the observed and AVN data.

4. Which model did a better job at forecasting the intensity of the low?

5. Do the forecast position and intensity errors depend on the length of the forecast?  Explain.

last updated: 10/29/04 11:47 AM